Plenty of reasons to believe

By Magoo
All the money is on the Indianapolis Colts, it must be, otherwise the Las Vegas line wouldn’t be situated at 9 1/2 points in favor of them moving on to the AFC championship game next weekend. Everywhere you look experts are picking the Colts. 

Even Steeler Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is telling the media how hard it will be to beat the "best team in football". Recently the AP reported that Roethlisberger acknowledged that in order for the Steelers to win they would have to play their A+ game while the Colts play their B- game.

Despite all this, the Steelers, who are 1-6 whenever they play a second playoff game in any given season, could still win if they play a B+ game but it would, of course necessitate the Colts playing a C- game. In other words the Steelers could still prevail if the Colts play below their capabilities. Can that happen? I am not sure, but it has happened at least one time this season. What's more, it happened at all places than the RCA dome in Indianapolis.

The bigger question is, can the Colts be had by the Steelers and if so how? Another questions might focus on, are there any soft spots in any part of the Colts game.

Defensively they rank 11th overall. Against the run they gave up an average of 110 yards per game this year, or just 5 yards per game less than our friends the Bengals. Against the pass, they, like the Steelers are in the middle of the pack and rank 15th while allowing 197 yards per game. But in the points allowed category they were tops in the AFC with 247 points. It must be pointed out that in their first 5 games this season the Colts allowed only 29 points (5.8 ppg), while in their remaining 11 games they gave up 218 points (19.8 ppg). 

It is my estimation that in late November, when these two teams played, Indianapolis played their A+ game while the Steelers played their D- game resulting in the Colts 26-7 victory. Much of that had to do with how the Colts defense throttled the Steelers offense allowing a mere 197 yards in the game.

On the day the Steelers offense managed only 86 yards on the ground and 127 in the air. Defensive end Dwight Freeney, on more than one occasion, knocked either Trai Essex or Marvel Smith flat on their backs. Freely had only 2 solo tackles that Monday night, but he, and the rest of the Colts defensive line, had their way with the Steelers front five, opening up opportunities for their linebackers to make plays against the Steeler running game. Middle linebacker Gary Brackett and outside linebacker David Thornton combined for 10 solo tackles and another 4 assists. Additionally, the Colts second year free safety Bob Sanders, had a terrific day, turning 9 solo tackles and had one pass defended.

Much has been written about how the noise in the RCA dome had a lot to do with this. The noise was a huge factor as the offensive line was flagged 5 times for false starts. Aside from the noise factor, in general the Steeler's offense was ineffective. In their first three possessions the Steeler offense had zero net yards.

During the same time the Colts, on the other hand had scored twice. The first time being an 80-yard TD strike on their first offensive play of the game. Later at the 6:11 mark of the opening quarter they scored again when place kicker Mike Vanderjagt booted a 29-yard field goal to give them a 10-0 lead. Suffice to say the tempo and momentum were already well established and there was still a lot of football left to be played.

The Steelers only score came after an interception by Steeler safety Troy Polamalu picked off a Peyton Manning pass intended for Marvin Harrison at the Indianapolis 43 yard line. Polamalu raced with the ball and returned it to the Colts 7 yard line. A few plays later the Steelers scored their only touchdown when Roethlisberger rifled a pass to Hines Ward in the end zone. The score pulled the Steelers to within 3 points of the lead at 10-7 Colts, and the momentum seemed to be swinging ever so slightly toward the Steelers. 

After the Steelers defense had stopped running back Edgrin James short on a third-and-two play, the Colts were forced to punt for the first time in the game. Steeler punt return specialist Antwaan Randle El took a Hunter Smith punt at the Steelers 32 and made a nifty return for 19 yards setting up the Steelers at the Colts 49 yard line. Two plays later, when Roethlisberger hit tight end Heath Miller for 9 yards to advance the ball to the Colts 38 yard line, it was the first time they had managed to secure a first down against the Colts defense. The Steelers offense then moved the chains once again and ultimately advanced the ball to the Colts 23, where their brief drive was stopped. But place kicker Jeff Reed's field goal attempt went wide left. And bang, just like that, end of momentum.

From that point on, in the first half, the Steeler offense went three and out on two of their next three possessions.

In the final 30 seconds a series of events led to the Colts adding another 3 points to their total. On a second-and-two play at the Steelers 47 yard line Roethlisberger was picked off by Mike Doss on a pass intended for Ward. Doss returned it to the Colts 40, but a penalty by Jeff Hartings tacked on another 15 yards and Manning was in business with a first down at the Steelers 45. On the first play, with only 15 seconds remaining in the half, Manning hit Harrison good for 15 yards. Colts running back Edgerrin James then carried the ball for an additional 5 yards to the Steelers 26. The Colts quickly called time out and Vanderjagt connected on a 44-yard field goal to give the Colts a very misleading 16-7 lead.

For the half, the Steeler offense was held to only 75 total yards, and a paltry 27 of them came on the ground. It wasn't as if the Steelers weren't trying either. They had run the ball 15 times and were averaging a mere 1.8 yards per carry. Things didn't go well for the passing game either. Roethlisberger had completed 10-of-14 passes for only 63 net yards and one touchdown. However he was intercepted once and sacked twice. His passer rating for the half was 74.4. 

To open the second half a desperate Bill Cowher called for an onside kick in the hope it would do two things. First, he hoped it might catch the Colts by surprise, and secondly, if the Steelers could pull it off successfully they would have nice field position and maybe that would be the impetus of giving his sputtering offense a lift. The attempt backfired and the Manning led Colts seized the short field opportunity to move the ball 37 yards on 7 plays, culminating in a 12 yard touchdown pass from Manning to Bryan Fletcher giving them a 23-7 lead.

Cowher would later admit that he was trying to create a spark...try to get a possession.

From that point on, the contest was never in question. The Colts offense saw Manning attempt only 10 more passes as James ran for 71 yards on 16 carries. In effect, the Colts beat the Steelers at their own game. The key reason this happened was the Colts defensive front 7 played their A+ game while the Steelers offensive front played their F- game. In fact, the entire Colts defense played very well.

"The only thing we focused on was going out and playing the way we play: physical, smart, fast," Colts safety Bob Sanders said. "And today I think we did that better than any game this year.

The Steeler's offensive line turned in what arguably could be their worst performances in two seasons. It says here that this will not happen again in Sunday's game. In their past 5 games, all wins, the Steelers have found their smash mouth game once again. In those games they have run the ball 198 times and gained 884 yards (4.46 yards-per-carry) on the ground, while scoring 11 touchdowns. In the same time span their newfound offense has scored 146 points (29.2 points-per-game).

Even more, the last time these teams played there were some very unsettling things going on with the Steelers offense. It was the first game back for Ben Roethlisberger, who had sat out to rehab an injured knee after an arthroscopic surgery on November 3rd. He had sat out three games and was expected to be a little rusty. Not only was Roethlisberger a little rusty he also suffered a thumb injury in the Colts game. It was reported that a tendon or ligament in right thumb was strained and that a sliver of bone was chipped off in the joint. Those two injury situations had to factor into his lackluster performance on that day.

The home crowd noise in the RCA dome was clearly another negative factor. It was apparent that it had a lot to do with why the Colts front line was having their way with the Steelers offensive line. All day long the group never seemed to be in sync. Additionally, when left tackle Marvel Smith left the game in the second quarter and was replaced by rookie Trai Essex, it had a snowball effect on the unit’s ability to get anything going.

Since then the Steelers have played a second game (a win over Minnesota) in a noisy dome situation and have seemed to have a much better idea of how to handle noise. Also, the return to health of Marvel Smith has been a big reason the Steelers have found their smash mouth game.

No, the Steelers offensive line will not turn an F- performance against the Colts this Sunday --you can take that to the bank! There are simply too many good players who have too much pride for that to happen again.

And what about the Colts defensive front 7... are they going to be able to turn in another A+ game? I don't think so. The Colts defense are an above average unit but, comparatively, not as good as the Steelers defense. They can give up the run and pass. Again they are ranked 11th and 15th respectively in those categories. No, as Sanders as much as said above they played their best game ever this year. Can they repeat that performance against an offense that will have all cylinders clicking? Hardly!

What about the Colts offense? How will they stop the juggernaut? First off, it has been done. It isn't like no one has ever done it. The San Diego Chargers wrote the formula of just how to beat the Colts. Hold James down and in turn get your own running game going. In that game the Chargers held a time of possession advantage that was Steeleresque --a 9-minute advantage. What does that sound like? Smash mouth! Smash mouth keeps the ball out of the hands of the Colts all everything quarterback Peyton Manning.

For all of this to happen of course the Steelers will need to get that first good punch in. They cannot allow the Colts to strike quickly as they did in the first game. It is my opinion that the Steelers will be well aware of all of these factors especially the secondary of the black and gold. They will be playing odd formations in order to stop the no-huddle offense. On defense they have a group of talented young defensive backs that having done fairly well against Manning the first time around and will be not so awed of the Colts this time.

The Steelers are a very different team when Roethlisberger is healthy. They have won 24 of the last 28 games he has started. His presence in the pocket and ability to improvise is among the best in the game. Going into this game he is coming off one of his best performances in his career. He completed 14-of-19 passes for 208 yards with three touchdowns. No question, his confidence level will be much better than it was going into the November 28^th contest.

Then there is the Bus factor. It is no coincidence that the Steelers newfound running game corresponds with the emergence of Jerome Bettis’ play. He has become a very reliable go-to guy in short yardage situations –especially near the goal line. His emotion is a huge asset to the team. Whenever he comes up with a big play it seems to have a very positive influence on the entire team. If the Steelers lose it just may be the last time we ever see the Bus in the backfield.

It cannot be discounted that indeed this team has had its back to the wall for the last 5 games and have played with a sense of urgency. That kind of mindset has to give the Steelers an added edge as well.        

Then there is the bullseye factor. Last season the Steelers were on a roll heading into the playoffs and many experts had named them as the team to beat. We all know what happened. Just like the Steelers of last year the Colts will be playing at home against a team that they had handled pretty well the first time around. This time the shoe is on the other foot for the Steelers, and make no mistake about it they will relish being the spoiler this time around.

I like our chances Steelers 24... Colts 16          

Oh by the way! It won't be the first time Vegas was wrong!